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New Analysis: US Missile Defense Tests Lack Realistic Decoys

, co-director and senior scientist

Rumor has it that the administration’s Missile Defense Review (MDR) may finally be released this week. As policy makers discuss its recommendations and consider expanding US missile defenses in various ways, they should have a realistic view of the capability of these systems—and their limitations.

There have been 18 intercept flight tests of the Ground-based Missile Defense (GMD) system through 2018. Contrary to some claims, these tests have not demonstrated that the missile defense system would be successful in intercepting incoming warheads under realistic conditions. Read more >

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The Long-Overdue Missile Defense Review Expected (Again) This Week

, Washington representative and senior analyst

Where’s the Trump administration’s hugely delayed Missile Defense Review? The latest rumor is that it will be released this coming Thursday, and that seems plausible (but I wouldn’t hold your breath).

The review was congressionally mandated in the FY17 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and was originally expected in late 2017. Then it was expected around the February 2018 release of the administration’s Nuclear Posture Review. After that, it was expected in May. Now, it is more than a year late, and what it says remains a mystery. Read more >

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Questions about a US Space Force

, senior scientist

This week, President Trump verbally directed General Dunford, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, “to begin the process necessary to establish a Space Force as the sixth branch of the armed forces.”

The term “Space Force” really got everyone’s attention. Obviously, everyone wants to know what the uniform would be. And the whole idea is built for memes.

What’s it all about? Let me respond to three different kinds of questions I’ve been hearing about this. Read more >

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The Case of the “Low-Yield” Trident Warhead

, Washington representative and senior analyst

Among the nuclear weapons programs included in the Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review, only one could start this year and be fully implemented in 2019. The military could field a “low-yield” nuclear warhead for the Trident missiles carried by US submarines.

What is this new warhead capability, and where does the proposal stand? Read more >

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Whose Finger Is on the Button? Nuclear Launch Authority in the United States and Other Nations

, analyst

Throughout the 2016 presidential campaign, and perhaps even more since Trump’s election, the media discovered a newfound interest in the minutiae of US nuclear policy. One question in particular has been asked over and over—can the president, with no one else to concur or even advise, order the use of US nuclear weapons? Most people have been shocked and somewhat horrified to find that there is a simple answer—yes. Read more >

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